SPC Day 4-8 Convective Outlook – 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

236 ACUS48 KWNS 190850 SWOD48 SPC AC 190849 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... Surface high pressure is forecast to move across the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. As a result, a dry and cool airmass is expected to limit severe potential across the continental U.S. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex from Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a low-level jet develops across the Great Plains. Within the warm advection regime, isolated strong thunderstorm development could take place. A hail threat would be possible in parts of the southern and central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens and instability increases Wednesday night. On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models develop a large-scale upper-level trough over the southwestern U.S. Some solutions eject a lead shortwave across the central U.S. on Thursday and Thursday night. Ahead of this feature, significant moisture return is forecast, and it appears that moderate instability will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop to the east of a dryline across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Some model solutions suggest that a second shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Friday. This would continue a potential for severe storms Friday into Friday night from the southern Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. In spite of a potential for severe storms late in the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability remains low. This is especially true on Friday due a relatively large spread among the model solutions. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024