Page:Walter Renton Ingalls - Current Economic Affairs (1924).pdf/24

10 crop statistics. Now, with a rather extensive experience as a statistician, let me say that I view the mere statistics of commodity production and stocks in first hands as being of very superficial character, and I consider superficial statistics to be about as safe as gunpowder in a room where a lot of boys are smoking cigarettes. I know a house in the metal business that is longer trained in the use of statistics than any other, and I have had in mind the words of directors of that house, dating back many years, that when statistical indications and experienced sentiment are in conflict sentiment is the only safe horse to back. This might look like a repudiation of the value of statistical information, but it is not so as I shall immediately show you. We have had during the last few months a series of brilliant zinc statistics, yet the price for spelter has steadily slumped in the face of them. The reason for this is that discerning minds have been able to look through the statistics, which are but superficial, and see underlying conditions that are to the contrary; wherefore there has been a bearish sentiment in spite of bullish indications and the seeming paradox of statistics and sentiment in conflict. But if we had complete statistics there would be found without any doubt to be no conflict whatsoever. I hope I have made my point for I am going to try to develop some important ideas from this thought.

On the face of the great mass of statistical data that I consider to be superficial we are being told that the United States at the present time is in a condition of great prosperity. The president of a large corporation, a thoughtful and intelligent man, asked me a few days ago if I did not agree with that conclusion. I replied