Page:Walter Renton Ingalls - Current Economic Affairs (1924).pdf/219

Rh Russia is m ruins. Its railways are in deplorable condition. Its heavy industries are all but wrecked. There is some production in the light industries, which have passed back into private control. The peasants have things in about their own way. The Bolsheviks have taught them to pay taxes. That’s all. The harvest will be better this year than last. Probably there is no danger of famine. But Russia will not be an exporter of grain. Absurd to think it. Well, then, what is going to happen politically and economically? They are much the same thing.

Communism was admittedly a failure. Then was substituted the “new economic policy,” or state capitalism. That also is a failure. Even the virile Trotzky says pitifully that private enterprise used to operate industry profitably but the government can not do it. Back to straight capitalism is the next thing. The Bolshevik government is now close to the end of its rope. The reign of terror is ended. Already is the new revolution developing strongly and swiftly. It still lacks coherence, lacks leadership. It does not show on the surface. It is like the sap spreading up through a tree. Some day the new thought will bud over night, just as does a tree in spring. It will seem sudden, but will not be really so. The red government will simply step out and a moderate one will step in. This may be a year hence, may be two years. Who can time such things closely?

What after that? Russia is essentially an agricultural country. We know that such countries can recuperate quickly. Russia is rich in natural resources. It is not unreasonable to expect that within five years after the change of government, barring agricultural