Page:Turkey, the great powers, and the Bagdad Railway.djvu/298

 *ever, no nation could afford to bully Turkey. By clever diplomatic bargaining economic and political privileges of the greatest importance might be obtained—the Capitulations, for example, might be abolished. Neutral Turkey might grow prosperous by a thriving commerce with the belligerents. After the peace both victor and vanquished would be too exhausted to think of aggression against a revivified Ottoman Empire. To remain neutral was to assure peace, security, and prosperity. To intervene was to invite defeat and dismemberment.

Militarists, however, appraised the situation differently. National honor demanded that Turkey go to the assistance of her allies. But, more than that, national security demanded the decisive defeat of the Entente Powers. As contrasted with the firm friendship of Germany for Turkey, it was pointed out, there was the traditional policy of Russia to dismember the Ottoman Empire and of France and Great Britain to infringe upon Ottoman sovereignty whenever opportunity presented itself. A victorious Russia would certainly appropriate Constantinople, and as "compensations" France would take Syria and England Mesopotamia. By closing the Dardanelles and declaring war, Turkey could deal Russian economic and military power a blow from which the empire of the Tsars might never recover. By associating herself with the seemingly irresistible military forces of Germany, Turkey might once and for all eliminate Russia—the feared and hated enemy of both Turks and Germans—from Near Eastern affairs. In addition, British security in Egypt might be shaken, and the French colonial empire in North Africa might be menaced by a Pan-Islamic revival. In these circumstances the war might be for Turkey a war of liberation, from which only the craven-hearted would shrink.

For a time, however, practical considerations led to the