Page:The Future of the Falkland Islands and Its People.pdf/30

 5. The Falklands Future

The present Falklands' form of government may arguably evolve into one of the following two principal options of selfdetermination: the option of free association or devolved integration, and the option of full independence. (Free association and devolved integration as outlined above would appear to be essentially the two varieties of one and the same option, to be referred to as ‘devolved integration’ below.) A curious detail of the independence scenario is that independent Falklands would have two immediate neighbour countries: Argentina and … Britain (South Georgia).

There is no need to make any early choice between the possible options of self-determination. That should better come as a result of natural evolution and building upon what the Falklands have already achieved. Self-determination also entails the freedom to change one’s mind subsequently, for future generations may decide differently.

I believe that any future choice between independence and devolved integration would be the choice between two good options rather than between a good and a bad one. Here follow but few relevant considerations that might provide the starting point for a more comprehensive analysis:

(1) Devolved Falklands would not lose the UK as its special gateway to such an advanced and important world region like Europe, including the Falklands associated status with the EU. Probably, this was one of the reasons for Aruba to cancel its independence agreement with the Netherlands and preserve its constitutional link with the Netherlands/EU instead;

(2) Devolved Falklands would keep the benefits of UK/EU citizenship, including the right of abode in the UK and Europe, consular and other diplomatic services by the Foreign Office (how many embassies of its own could the Falklands afford?);

(3) Devolved Falklands would continue to enjoy its present degree of absolute security guaranteed by Britain and thus by Britain's allies (USA and NATO) who have no match in the field of security. On the contrary, smaller states tend to be heavily dependent on the goodwill of their larger neighbours for their survival. In the Falklands case, no regional Latin American arrangements whatsoever could nullify the risks of unexpected negative developments on the mainland that would render the