Page:The Effects of Finland's Possible NATO Membership - An Assessment.pdf/57

 CONCLUSION

In closing, we wish to underscore the following points.

SEA CHANGE. First, a decision to join the Atlantic Alliance and its Article 5 collective defence commitment would represent a sea change, transforming Finland’s security policy overall, and its relationship with Russia in particular. Paradoxically, the deepest effects would not be in the sphere of military policy and dispositions: membership of NATO would not entail a marked departure from the long-standing Finnish choice in favour of a conscript-based territorial defence. The shift would be geopolitical and strategic in nature, as momentous, for example, as Sweden’s decision to become neutral some two centuries ago, or Poland joining NATO at the end of the nineties. These were decisions conceived for the long haul, which transformed the positioning of these states as political and strategic actors. In other words, the decision to join NATO would not be a mere incremental extension of Finland’s increasingly close partnership with NATO.

TIMING. Second, in the security of countries, the timing of decisions is of the essence. Nor should decisions be rushed. An accession process should be based on the dual understanding that it is a long-term commitment and that applying for membership could be difficult once a strategic storm has broken. Symmetrically, a decision to pursue the current policy of cooperation with NATO short of membership should be viewed in the same light. The possibility to apply for membership remains a tool to master the geopolitical dilemma posed by an unpredictable neighbour.

JOINT DECISION. Finally, we repeatedly received confirmation of the proposition that the effects of possible NATO membership would be considerably more benign for Finland if such a decision were made in a coordinated manner by Finland and Sweden, than if Finland joined alone. Similarly, a Swedish decision to join NATO and a Finnish decision not to join would leave Finland isolated and exposed. THE EFFECTS OF FINLAND'S POSSIBLE NATO MEMBERSHIP ● AN ASSESSMENT