Page:The Effects of Finland's Possible NATO Membership - An Assessment.pdf/55

 and purchase cutting-edge equipment like the F-18 Hornet fighter aircraft has enhanced their credibility. Universal conscription also remains the sole recruitment avenue for the officer corps and the NCOs.

Increased military co-operation with Sweden generally remains popular. The same applies to peacekeeping operations. This is also the case for conscripts and reservists when it comes to manoeuvres with NATO troops. It is very difficult to extrapolate any trends as to how the will to defend would be affected by Finland’s possible NATO membership.

FINLAND AND SWEDEN: JOINTLY OR SEPARATELY? If Finland were to apply unilaterally with Sweden staying out for reasons of its own, Finland’s strategic situation would be rather exposed. It would then stand alone as a NATO strategic outpost, with its only land connection with the Alliance a largely uninhabited, mountainous and inaccessible border area with Norway in the far North. The prospect of the Alliance assisting Finland without the use of Swedish territory is hard to imagine. The presence of Russian naval forces in the Gulf of Finland, furthermore, could make the connections with the nearest NATO land territory in Estonia precarious.

A similar Swedish unilateral move could increase Finnish exposure to Russia. Such considerations were important to the Swedish government during the Cold War, when joining NATO was discarded as it could make Finland’s relations with the USSR even more complicated – with the ensuing multiple effects on Sweden. “Back to the future” is a concept that no Swedish government would countenance lightly. It would create a “Finland question” for Sweden that it does not have at present.

It would seem that while a common Finnish and Swedish application for membership would entail a considerable change in the political geography of Europe, with the ensuing risks of at least temporarily augmented tension between NATO and Russia, it is, in strategic terms, clearly preferable to either a Finnish or Swedish Alleingang. A Finnish unilateral approach to the Alliance would create serious logistical problems for NATO, magnifying the problems that the Baltic States present, since there would be no real THE EFFECTS OF FINLAND'S POSSIBLE NATO MEMBERSHIP ● AN ASSESSMENT