Page:The Effects of Finland's Possible NATO Membership - An Assessment.pdf/54

 the diplomatic and economic status quo ante once enlargement has taken place. Turkey (1952), the Federal Republic of Germany (1955), the extension of NATO to the territory of the former German Democratic Republic (1990), Poland (1999), and the Baltic States (2004) were the most salient episodes fitting into this pattern. Ukraine and Georgia have been the exceptions to this pattern, underscored by ostentatious and credibly backed red lines in a manner not present in other cases.

THE WILL TO DEFEND THE COUNTRY. The will to defend the country reflects historical identities and their role in security and defence policy. The Finnish will to defend the country has always been extremely high, reaching levels of around 80%. More or less the same level of each cohort completes military service. The assumption that NATO membership would weaken this will is just that, an assumption, although it is used in the Finnish debate.

It is difficult to see any direct linkage between NATO membership and the will to defend. Like now, the willingness is likely to depend on the method for formulating the division of responsibilities for defending the country by policies and in political debate. The starting point for NATO membership is national defence, which will be coordinated at the NATO level and supported by joint structures.

The high level of readiness to defend Finland has been well documented in polls conducted systematically for decades. It has not fluctuated to any great degree because of changes in the security political situation in Northern Europe. However, the recent developments in Russia and its aggressive posture are factors that influence this will to defend.

The most important explanation remains history, the legacy of having survived the war, and avoiding occupation. The unbroken military tradition perpetuated in the form of conscription, which covers almost eighty per cent of the male population, has in popular terms kept the tradition alive. Refresher training and the large number of reservists who have volunteered for service in the UN and other peacekeeping operations has further confirmed the image of the Defence Forces. Their ability to modernise 54