Page:The Economic Journal Volume 1.djvu/816

 794 THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL grain that they would get control of the European money markets, and therefore would be in a position to take back as much gold as they required before the year came to an end. And they reasoned, further, that when prosperity returned, as it was sure to dJ with such harvests, European investment in the United States would begin again. The result has fulfilled their expectations. Already the grain exports from the United States have become enor,nous, and since the middle of September gold has been flowing back from Europe to New York. In the interval, while gold was being exported and the crops were only a promise not yet realised, the money market was kept easy by the issue from the Treasury every month of nearly a lnillion sterling of new notes. In the past autumn, therefore, the American money market has been easier than for many years. One consequence of this is that the silver question has dropped into the background. The farmers of the South and West, whose voting power gave it its importance, had suffered for a considerable time from low prices and bad or indifferent harvests. They had been compelled therefore to mortgage their farms heavily, and the payment of the interest plunged thein into serious distress. They were easily induced, consequently, to believe the Silver Party when it told them that an increase of the silver money would be certain to raise prices, and so relieve them frown their embarrassments. Now, however, they have been favoured by exceptionally good crops, and prices 'are higher than they have been for a considerable time past. They are, as a natural result, more careless about silver. And the leading capitalists of the Eastern and Middle States, whose opposition twelve months ago defeated th Free Coinage Bill, are only too well pleased to allow the question to sleep for the lnoment, partly because they fear that, if they were to begin to agitate for the repeal of the last Act, they might arouse the fariners of the West and South to again demand free coinage, and perhaps to carry some measure worse than anything yet attempted. Besides, they are so intent upon availing themselves of the present favourable opportunity to lnake money that .they are willing to leave the silver difficulty unsolved for the present. And the leaders of parties are glad to acquiesce in this view, for, with the Presidential. election coming on, they fear to give offence either to the advocates or opponents of fresh silver legislation, What may happen when Congress is actually in session it would be rash to pre- dict now; but, as we write, the prospect is that the question will be allowed to sleep for a little while yet. If this happens, sooner or later there must be a very grave crisis. Since preparations for resuming specie payments began, all the gold raised froln the American mines has been retained at home, and a very large part of it has either been coined or, in the form of bullion, is held in the Treasury. Besides, from 1878 till the middle of August, 1890, silver was coined at he rate of from five to six millions sterling, nominal, annually. Since August, 1890, 4 snillio. n oun.ces of silver have been bought nlonthly, and notes have been sssued n payment,