Page:The Economic Journal Volume 1.djvu/430

 4O8 THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL These periodical variations are connected with the vicissitudes of national prosperity. Low water corresponds to dulness of trade; a large flow of population indicates prosperity, at any rate in that country towards which the flow is directed. It is not here, as in the case of what is called the' natural'increase of population, by way of births and deaths. Large birth-rates with large death-rates do not indicate prosperity; large immigration with large emigration does. Aording to these theories, since we have not yet touched the low water of immigration, we may expect to be worse before we are better. However, it is admitted that the observed periodicity is but an empirical law; so let us hope that a premature rise of prosperity may falsify the suggestions of experience. The second part of the Report deals with the new returns concern- ing the immigration of foreigners from European ports. Digesting a mass of heterogeneous evidence, Mr. Giffen concludes that the large ' net emigration' of foreigners, or balance of emigration to, over im- migration from, non-European ports, which is evidenced by the ' usual' returns, namely, 57,500 in round numbers, is nearly compensated by the ' net immigration,' similarly defined, from European ports, shown by the new returns, 50,000 nearly. The difference of some 7,500 between efiux and influx is to be accounted for partly by certain minor leakages in the statistics, and largely by the existence of an influx of foreigners who come to stay in this country an influx which appears to be on the increase. There is evidence that a notable part of the increase was caused by immigrants of Jewish origin, to whom Mr. Giffen assigns the number 4,000 or 5,000. Of their condition he says: ' It cannot be said that all are destitute in the strict sense of the word; on the contrary, the charitable agencies referred to have to deal with much smaller numbers; but they are mostly poor, and many, if not the objects of charity by public bodies, are assisted by friends until they obtain employment.' NOTES ON CURRENT ToPics (Chiefly by Mr. JoJ Pae.). MR. GOSCHEN'S fifth budget is, on the whole, simple and satisfac- tory. The revenue for the year 1890-1 has been 89,489,000, and the expenditure 87,733,000, so that there is a surplus of 1,756,000. The expenditure has exceeded the estimate in the Chancellor's last financial statement by 356,000, incurred mainly to meet supplemen- tary outlays on the Navy, on the Irish Constabulary Fund, and on the increase of wages in the Post and Telegraph Departments; but then the revenue has also exceeded his estimate, and by the large figure of 1,879,000, due mainly to a continuance of that increase in the con- sumption of alcoholic drinks which gave Mr. Goschen his surplus last year, but which he did not venture to hope would continue. The