Page:The Economic Journal Volume 1.djvu/407

 NOTES AND MEMORANDA 38,5 In 1881 Dr. Grimshaw found that the addition of the recorded natural increment to the census population of 1871, and the subtraction of the total recorded emigration gave a number greater by 5.,855 than the census of 1881. This. excess he appeared to attribute to defective registration of deaths3 By the method alluded to above I conclude that something like the following numbers of immigrants must; have settled in Ireland in the decade 1871-81: Settlers in Ireland in Ten Years. From England and Wales.. Scotland ................ British Colonies, &c... United States ......... Continent of Europe.. ,Calculated from Census 1871-81. 15,0.00 6,300 1,600 3,800 600 .7,500 Estimated for decade 1881-91. 13,000 6,000 1,600 5,000 1,000 0,6,600 Now for the decade just completed we must fall back upon still looser estimates. I have assumed the movement from Great Britain to Ireland to have continued decreasing as in the past; that from the colonies to have remained the same; that from the United States to have increased, as also that from the Continent of Europe, and so I have arrived at the figures in the right-hand column. We then get: Ireland. Population, census 1881 add natural increnent ... Deduct total emigrants Add immigrants ...... 5,174,836 ...... 267,081 5,441,917 773,728 4,668,189 0.6,600 4,694,789 The Registrar-General of Ireland has favoured me with his estinate for the m/ddle of the year 1891 (an estimate calculated on the basis of the period, April 1881 to April 1891, not on calendar years as mine) it is 4,644,842, or substantially the same number. We may pretty con- fidently expect that the census number will lie between 4,600,000 and 4,700,000, as against 4,947,716, the number that the hypothesis of a constant rate of decrease would give. ' Quarterly Return of Marriages, Births 1881. No. 2.--VOL. I and Deaths in Ireland, 2nd Quarter, c c