Page:The Economic Journal Volume 1.djvu/406

 4 THE .ECONOMIC JOURN.,L number of foreign immigrants (190,629), we get 34,928,534, which is only 33,686 above the census figure. This result is, however, a some- what haphazard. one, as the number 190,629 represents the foreigners from places out of Europe .arriving in this country. As a matter of fact, very many of these pass on to the Continent, and it is a mere chance that the number of foreigners coming to the United Kingdom from European ports in this decade happened to be about equally numerous. We have no means of measuring the foreigners landing in this country from European ports and settling kere except such as can be deduced from the census. By a method which I have fully ex- plained elsewhere (Studies in Statistics, pp. 39-41), I calculate that the net number of persons of foreign or colonial birth. settling in the United Kingdom during the ten years 1871-80 was about: Colonials, &c., 47,000; Foreigners, 87,500; total, 134,500. This number is remarkably close to the deficiency we had above 156,943. Now let us apply all this to the decade just closed: United Kingdom. Population, census 1881... 34,884,848 Add natural increment, 1881-90... 4,421,524 Deduct Emigrants,. British and Irish origin... Less Immigrants ,, ,, ... 2,558,535 830,212 39,3O6,372 1,728,323 37,578,049 We may safely say the census of' 1891 will show a larger number than this, because we have made no allowance for immigration from Europe or elsewhere of persons not of British or Irish origin. If in the previous decade 47,000 colonials settled here we may safely assume that at least 60,000 must have settled here in the ten years just com- pleted. And if 87,500 ,foreigners settled here in 1871-80, certainly a much larger number in 1881-90. This is of all factors the one con- cerning which we h.ave the least positive information; but if we double the number we shall probably err on the side of liberality. These two additions would then be: Colonial settlers ... Foreign settlers ... 37,578,049 60,000 175,000 37,813,049 I should..anticpate, then, that the census will show a number between 37,700,000 and 37,900,000, as against the official estimate of 38,652,244. The case. of Ireland is the simplest after that of the United King- dom, because not only is the emigration from Ireland recorded .separately, but an endearour is made to distinguish real emigrants from mere passengers to and fro.