Page:The Economic Journal Volume 1.djvu/405

 NOTES AND MEMORANDA 388 of births over deaths) differs but little from the enumerated popu- lation, thus :--. 1861 Estimate was 199,111 in excess. 1871 ,, 78,968 ,, 1881 ,, 164,307 ,, altogether out of It is migration account) the observed excess of births over deaths gave a closer estimate of the population than the ass-mption of a uniform rate of thus evident that (leaving increase. It is certainly not a little remarkable that, in the case of England and Wales, the oticial method of estimation has given such good results hitherto.' This is to be explained by the fact that in the forty years 1841-1881 the great emigration from this country has been largely counterbalanced, not so much by immigration from Europe, America, or Australia as by immigration from Scotland and Ireland. The Irish emigration records show that the stream of migrants from the Emerald Isle to this country is fast running dry; the less consider- able flow from the Continent has increased, but the great tide of emigration has been more sustained in volume during the last decade than ever before. The available data as to migration are as follows :-- 1o the United Kingdom: (a) 'Passengers' o places out of Europe, distinguished as (1) English, (9) Sooeh, (3) Irish, (4) oreigners. (b) 'Passengers' from ploes out of Europe, distinguished as (1) British and Irish, (9) oreigners. Fo Ireland: (a) ' Emigrants,' natives of Ireland, distinguished as going to (1) Places outside the United Kingdom, (9) England and Wales, (3) Scotland. (b) 'Emigrants,' not natives of Ireland. Now, as regards the population of the United Kingdom in 1881. Calculated according to the official method, the estimate was 34,967,905, but the census gave .34,884,848; so the estimate was too /ow by 616,943. The natural Increment of the ten years, added to the popu- lation of 1871, gave 35,799,097, or a number too hh by 914,179. But during the ten years the Board of Trade returns showed :-- Gross emigration of persons of British and Irish origin... 1,678,919 Immigrants of British and Irish origin ... ... ... 607,797 Net emigration (British and Irish) ... 1,071,122 If this last nnmber be deducted from the estimate obtained by the natural increment we get a much closer approximation, viz., 34,797,905, or a n-tuber 156,943 below the census figures. If, now, we add the