Page:The Economic Journal Volume 1.djvu/353

 THE MCKINLEY TARIFF ACT it woulcl check the progress towarcl better relations between the whites ancl blacks, a progress whicla, while i has by no means solreel that most'cliflicult of our problems, is yet an extraorclinary example of the capacity of the American to aclapt himself to changeel conclitions. They have alienatecl many members of their own party by the extravagance of their legislation for pensioning soltilers of the Civil lVar. All these causes contributecl to bring about their cliscomfiture; to which may be aclclecl the usual reaction against the party in power miclway in its aclministration. The tariff Act in itself was in its cletails an tmforttmate measure, calcu- latecl to invite attack ancl clefeat. The country has not, therefore, pronouncecl clefinitely as to the protective policy, but only as to the policy which the Republicans have pursuecl in every clirection cluring the last two years. If the Republicans, riclcling themselves of the particularly obiectionable features of the McKinley Act, plant themselves squarely upon a policy of more moclerate pro- tection, ancl if they ricl themselves of some tinpopular measures ancl unpopular leaclefs, it is by no means clear that they may not succeecl in 1892. Looking now, however, not at the prospect for the next two years or the next five years, but at the probable permanent fiscal policy of the Uniteel States, it seems to me clear that there are certain cleep-reaching factors which will tencl to bring the cottatry away from the policy of protection, ancl eventually to lower the range of import cluties. In the first place, the enormous exporta- tion of agricultural proclucts which now takes place from the Uniteel States cannot continue inclefinitely. As the population increases within the Uniteel States, ancl as less ancl less new lancl becomes available, there will be more mouths to feecl within the cottatry, ancl no fresh natural resources with which to raise agricultural procluce. In the seconcl place the inclustrial character of the American people is such as will make the cottatry, in the long rtm, an exporter rather than an importer of manufacturecl articles. The extraorclinary aclvances macle by .us in the use ancl invention of labour-saving machinery, and the enormous resources in iron, copper, lead, coal, and natural gas, promise a great development of manufacturing industry.in those industries where mechanical skill is most important. As the pressure towards diminishing exports of agricultural produce becomes felt, and the possibility of increased exports in manufactured articles more clear, the cry for free raw materials, which is now being raised effectively by the Democrats, will become more and more effective, and the trend of opinion must be in fayour of a more liberal