Page:The Economic Journal Volume 1.djvu/352

 THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL So much for the history: to which a word may now be added as to the probabilities of the future. As the readers of this Journal doubtless know, the members of the House of Representatives are elected for two years only, and every two years a new House supersedes the old one. Immediately after the passage of the McKinley Act in October, 1890, the biennial election for the next House was held. In that election (in November, 1890) the tariff question was again mainly at issue. The result of the popular vote, to the surprise of the opponents as well as to the friends of the McKinley Act, was the complete and utter rout of the Repub- licans. Not only has the slender majority which they have in the present House been wiped out, but in the next House of Repre- sentatives the majority against them will be more than two to one. It must not be forgotten, however, that the peculiarities of our political machinery will prevent this change in the popular vote from having any effect on legislation for several years to come. In the first place, the newly elected House of Representatives will not meet until December, 1891, so that mder the most favourable circumstances no change in legislation could be undertaken before 1892. Next, the Senate has still a Republican maiority, and is likely to continue to have one for at least two years to come. Finally, President Harrison retains his veto power over legislation until the expiration of his term in March, 1893. The new House, confronted by a Republican Senate and President, will, therefore, be unable to enact any measure overthrowing the new tariff Act. When we consider the possibilities after 1892, we are very much at sea. The campaign of 1890 was no more than a pre- liminary skirmish. The real struggle will come in 1892, when a new President and still another House of Representatives will be elected. What will be the policy of the Republicans and Demo- crats in the meantime, and what will be the trend of public opinion, it is impossible to say. Other issues notably those cormected with the silver coinage and the currency ..may come to the front, and materially affect the constituency nd prospects of both par- ties. But one thing is clear: that the general policy of protection has not yet been definitely rejected. While the new tariff Act was doubtless not popular, and damaged the Republicans at the last elections, other causes contributed to their mishaps. To say the least, they have not improved the Civil Service; they have not been fortunate, to use again a mild expression, in some appoint- ments to conspicuous public offices. They have tried to pass the bill, popularly known as the Force Bill, for reooulating Federal elections in the South, which is fairly open to the objection that