Page:The Economic Journal Volume 1.djvu/211



opening months of 1891, as far as business is concerned, exhibit the first effects of the great financial crisis of the previous year, which is described in a subsequent note in this journal. As usual after a crisis there is lauguor in all directions iu business. The money market, after being very firm for a time during and shortly after the crisis, has become weak with very low rates. The Stock Exchange has been in a state of torpor for several months. Every attempt at a rally in stocks has broken off short, and the weakness is such in many directions, for instance in Argentine stocks, that the slightest attempt to make large sales would depress prices greatly, and the sales, in fact, at anything like present values would be impossible. One or two of the leading financial houses, or what were two or three months ago leading financial houses, are also in sore straits, and the problem is whether in any form they can be tided over or not without an absolute stoppage, the fact of their substantially going into liquidation with or without a formal stoppage being undoubted. In trading circles, though railway traffics, imports and exports, entries and clearances of shipping, and emigration all show declines in 1891 compared with the opening months of 1890, the languor and depression are as yet far from being so great as in banking and financial circles. The returns published by the Labour Correspondent of the Board of Trade show in particular a very small addition to the numbers of the unemployed as compared with the numbers a year ago. It is to he feared, however, that the depression felt so greatly in the financial world must be reflected before long in trade. A margin of business is cut off when financiers are in distress. Without new issues to stimulate enterprise (and new issues for months have been almost at an end), an important item in the general volume of business when times are good is absent. It is to be feared, then, that before long trade will not be so good as it has been. The lean years that in usual course follow the fat years are being ushered in by 1891. As we write, the prospect is being farther clouded by financial troubles in Paris, which stood firm all through the Baring crisis, and other troubles. This clouding of the prospect in new quarters is, however,