Page:The Economic Journal Volume 1.djvu/178

 158 Down to the end of June 1873, then, the price in no case fell below the point indicated by the exchange—did not even fall so low as that point, the demand sufficing to keep it on a somewhat higher level. Had the demand been greater or the supply less, it might of course have risen to any point, and in any case if the exchange had been more favourable the open mint would have maintained the price; but however little the demand and however great the supply, it could not have fallen materially below the exchange point while the Mint remained open.

The fall, such as it was, was much less than had frequently happened before. In the first thirteen months, as shown in the accompanying table, it was but ½d. an ounce, and the total amount of fall from the par value of 60·232d. an ounce was about 1d. in sixteen months; but when once limitations were imposed on the coinage, the further fall was 1d. in three months, and continued almost without intermission as the limitations were made more severe, until the final closing of the Mint.

But the limitations were imposed in September; and how then came it to pass that the fall below exchange point began at the end of June, and that on the 27th the price was a few hundredths lower than the exchange would warrant? This fall in June, which continued until the 15th July, was insignificant, viz. ·027d. in the oz., or less than 1/33 of a penny, a fraction at which no sale or quotation would be made, and which would be counterbalanced by a rise in the exchange of about 1 centime, the variations in the rate being never less than 2½ centimes. The exchange varies every moment, and it is impossible to say that the quoted prices correspond exactly in point of time with the quoted exchange. The exchange may have been a point higher at the particular moment when the Silver quotation was given or the sale made, so the divergence was more apparent than real, particularly as the inclusion of a charge for agency may probably annihilate it. It was not till the 8th August that the fall, ·326d. below the price which the exchange should indicate, insignificant as that fall was, deserves any notice, inasmuch as it can hardly be accounted for by the above consideration. Coming events cast their shadows before, and there is no doubt that there were rumours in abundance as to the intended action of the French Government, and when those rumours began, no holder of Silver could be certain that