Page:Technical Support Document - Social Cost of Carbon, Methane and Nitrous Oxide Interim Estimates under Executive Order 13990.pdf/20

 where regulatory costs fully displace investment. If the beneficial impacts of the regulation induce private investment whose social returns have not been quantified and fully converted to consumption equivalents, then the net benefits calculated using the social rate of return on capital is not even a lower bound. Li and Pizer (2021) further generalize the SOC framework and demonstrate that temporal pattern of benefits is important and that when benefits occur far in the future discounting using the social rate of return on capital again is not even a lower bound on net benefits.

For regulations whose benefits and costs occur over a relatively short time frame, the range of net benefits computed using the two discounting approaches will be relatively narrow. Therefore, there is less risk in maintaining an uninformed prior over the share of regulatory costs that will displace investment and using the potential bounding cases for net benefits. However, for cases where the costs are borne early in the time horizon and benefits occur for decades or even centuries, such as with GHG mitigation, the two estimates of net benefits will differ significantly. In this case, the risk to society of maintaining an uninformed prior over the share of regulatory costs borne by investment is significantly higher. In turn, the preferred approach is to discount benefits using the consumption rate of interest and strive to provide a more complete measure of costs, accounting for displacement of investment whose social rate of return exceeds the private rate of return, either by using a shadow price of capital approach or a general equilibrium framework, like a computable general equilibrium model.

It is important to note that even if an appropriately specified blended SOC rate could be calculated based on the share of regulatory costs that are expected to displace investment that would not obviate the need to carefully consider issues of uncertainty and ethics when discounting in an intergenerational context, pointing to a lower rate.

For these reasons, the IWG is returning to the approach of calculating the SC-GHG based on the consumption rate of interest, consistent with the findings of the National Academies (2017).

3.2New Evidence on the Consumption Discount Rate

The three discount rates selected by the IWG in 2010 are centered around the 3 percent estimate of the consumption interest rate published in OMB’s Circular A-4 in 2003. That guidance was based on the real rate of return on 10-year Treasury Securities from the prior 30 years (1973 through 2002), which averaged 3.1 percent. Over the past four decades there has been a substantial and persistent decline in real interest rates (see Figure 1). Recent research has found that this decline has been driven by decreases in the equilibrium real interest rate (Bauer and Rudebusch 2020). Re-estimating the consumption rate of interest following the same approach applied in Circular A-4, including using data from the most recent 30 years, yields a substantially lower result. The average rate

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