Page:Stabilizing the dollar, Fisher, 1920.djvu/174

120 Of one thing we may be all but sure! The price level will not stand still unless we hitch it. It never has; and now, of all times, with the vast conflicting forces ahead, we shall be foolish if we expect complete equilibrium. On the contrary, we are probably destined to see, in the next generation, important price movements, perhaps more erratic than those in the past.

The whole question of monetary standards will inevitably come up for discussion. History will repeat itself in some degree and Europe will almost certainly see a "greenback" party arise as we did after the Civil War, opposed to any return to the old price level especially as that return will double or quadruple the cost of paying off the war loans. The bimetallist and free-silver exponent also are once more asking a hearing. The gold producers, hard hit by the fact that their product has been made a drug on the markets (by the vast amounts of paper and credit substitute for gold), were recently asking for relief by measures which would only aggravate the situation.

I venture to predict that our present problem—of a price level dislocated by the war—will continue insistently to press for solution until it is settled. It will not settle itself. If prices rise much further—which is by no means impossible—discontent may turn to fury or revolution.

If prices fall far toward pre-war levels we shall be on the road to depression of trade, unemployment, and all those ills and grievances of twenty-five years ago.

If, by accident and contrary to all recorded experience, the price level should remain fairly constant, its right to continue so high will be long contested.

On the other hand, if once we deliberately choose a