Page:Speeches, correspondence and political papers of Carl Schurz, Volume 5.djvu/317

Rh fall in the price of silver. The price of silver began to decline in the market, at first slightly, two years before the demonetization took place. The cause was, then, the increase of supply. Between 1866 and 1870 the average annual production of silver in the world was 43,051,583 fine ounces. Between 1871 and 1875 it was 63,317,014 fine ounces, and it went on increasing until in 1895 it was 174,796,875 fine ounces, four times as much as the annual average had been thirty years before. And the rise in production would have been still greater had not the fall in price made the mining of some low-grade ores unprofitable.

Now I ask any sensible person whether against such an increase of production any product in the world could have maintained its price, even if the demand had remained the same. What, then, would the effect of free coinage in the United States be on the price of silver? It would probably produce at first an upward tendency. But as soon as the price goes up, silver production, greatly facilitated by constantly progressive reduction of its cost, will jump up too, and once more depress the price. We had a striking illustration of this after the passage of the law of 1890, which provided for the purchase of 54,000,000 ounces annually. At first the price of silver rose sharply, but soon it began to fall again, and fell lower than ever. Why? Because the production of silver rose from 124,000,000 ounces in 1890 to 137,000,000 in 1891, to 153,000,000 in 1892, and to 165,000,000 in 1893. Can there be any doubt that, if free coinage caused any considerable rise in price, that price would be speedily pressed down again by an increased output of the mines? Why is it that such an enormous quantity of silver is produced at the present low price? Because at that low price silver mining on a large scale is still profitable. If it were not there would be none of it. It is therefore certain that free coinage