Page:Seventh Report - Guns for gold- the Wagner Network exposed.pdf/31

Rh countries. The FCDO acknowledged that “Wagner have had a clear effect on our ability to partner” in Mali. Anti-France campaigns built on pre-existing opposition to the country, due to its colonial legacy. The UK may be similarly vulnerable.

Regional instability: The breakdown of national order can have major regional consequences and Wagner activities can make this more likely. In April, conflict broke out in Sudan, which resulted in the displacement of nearly 3 million people internally and across borders. Wagner activities were a contributory factor to the breakdown of order in Sudan. Within Africa, where the network has its most extensive geographic footprint, the presence of Wagner troops increases the likelihood of violence (including gender-based violence), corruption, autocracy, conflict escalation, the displacement of people, and greater competition over resources. All of these go against the desire of the UK Government to enhance stability, reduce fragility and counter threats to UK nationals abroad. Migratory flows can increase pressures on neighbouring countries, which themselves may be fragile or conflict-affected.

Threats to the international order: The UK Government believes that countries have a “shared higher interest in an open and stable international order”, but use of malign proxy groups in warfare weakens this. There may also be risks to the UK of being seen not to stand up for its values.

Emboldening of violent groups: The failure of the Wagner Network to effectively counter terrorist or insurgent groups can allow hostile groups to obtain further advantage, secure more weapons and consolidate (or even gain) territories. We also received evidence from a former Wagner fighter suggesting that Prigozhin once bought a batch of weapons and ammunition directly from Hezbollah.

30. There are serious national security threats to the UK and its allies of allowing the network to continue to thrive, not to mention devastating human consequences, including contributing to the refugee crisis for example, Sudan.

31. Over the past year and a half, Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine has eroded the Wagner Network’s deniability and Prigozhin’s public arguments with the Russian