Page:ScienceAndHypothesis1905.djvu/226

 between certain limits. Hence our first conclusion is that the property is not only true of the logarithm but of any continuous function whatever, since the derivatives of every continuous function are limited. If I was certain beforehand of the result, it is because I have often observed analogous facts for other continuous functions; and next, it is because I went through in my mind in a more or less unconscious and imperfect manner the reasoning which led me to the preceding in equalities, just as a skilled calculator before finishing his multiplication takes into account what it ought to come to approximately. And besides, since what I call my intuition was only an incomplete summary of a piece of true reasoning, it is clear that observation has confirmed my predictions, and that the objective and subjective probabilities are in agreement. As a third example I shall choose the following:—The number u is taken at random and n is a given very large integer. What is the mean value of sin nu? This problem has no meaning by itself. To give it one, a convention is required—namely, we agree that the probability for the number u to lie between a and a + da is Φ(a)da; that it is therefore proportional to the infinitely small interval da, and is equal to this multiplied by a function Φ(a), only depending on a. As for this function I choose it arbitrarily, but I must assume it to be continuous. The value of sin nu remaining the same when u increases by 2π, I may without loss of generality assume that