Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 83.djvu/234

230 known. The smaller estimates make little or no allowance for discoveries of new nitrate deposits, which is quite likely to happen, nor do they count on any improvements in processes of manufacture, which very readily might prolong by many years the duration of supplies now known. It also is possible that ripio, nitrate-bearing costra and lowgrade caliche, thrown aside in the past, may be worked profitably in the future. Should all these things develop favorably, the nitrate industry could thrive for a good many decades to come. Otherwise its span of existence is not likely to extend much beyond the middle of the century, for increased production, which is entirely probable, must hasten the end.

Another possible "rock ahead" for the business has been found by some people in the production of nitrates from atmospheric nitrogen by an electrical process. Where water power is abundant and cheap, nitrates from this process can be made to compete with the Chilean product. It is being done now in Norway. But for most parts of the world which have large water-power resources the use of this power will be more valuable for other purposes as long as Chilean nitrates continue to be abundant and reasonably cheap.

It has been suggested that when the nitrate is exhausted irrigation may turn the pampa into a highly productive farming region. This may be possible for limited areas, but from what is known of the water supplies available it seems unsafe to look for any extensive agricultural development. Exhaustion of the nitrate apparently means a general decay of the region unless other mineral resources are discovered and developed. It means for Chile the loss of $100,000,000 (United States gold) in annual exports and $30,000,000 (United States gold) of government revenue. For the world it means turning to some other source of nitrogen for supplies to fertilize its crops. Happily the way already is open for the latter change.