Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 83.djvu/233

Rh been done, and much more is now being undertaken, to improve port facilities, especially at Valparaiso; and much of the money has been used in building up an army and navy to insure Chilean leadership and prestige among the West Coast countries. It is estimated that in the thirty years following 1880 the total revenue from nitrate duties has been more than $300,000,000 (United States gold), while with the present rate of production and the same tax continued, the next twenty-five years will give Chile nearly $750,000,000 (United States gold) more.

One check on overproduction may be exerted through a law providing that government nitrate lands are open to exploitation only after such lands have been disposed of at public auction. But, at the same time, this law has tended to check individual effort in exploring thoroughly the limits of the nitrate deposits. Another check on overproduction has been the "nitrate trust," or Combinación Salitrera, an agreement, entered into in 1901 by the larger companies, concerning the limitation of annual output and its allotment among the different oficinas. For a number of years prior to 1909 the trust worked well, but since then, despite all efforts to keep them in line, a good many companies have limited their output only by the maximum capacity of their oficinas. As an official of one of the largest Chilean companies aptly said: "There is no need for agreements when the demand is so heavy and the prices so good. If the price goes down—well, perhaps agreements can be revived then."

The nitrate business is so vital to the northern provinces of Chile, and even to the whole country as it is now organized, that the future of the industry has been a question of much concern. Some believe that the opening of the Panama Canal, with the resulting shortening of voyages from Iquique and Antofagasta to the United States, United Kingdom and Germany, will stimulate the commerce in nitrate very materially, for those three countries now take about 80 per cent, of the exports. Optimistic prophets, noting also the increasing popularity of nitrates, forecast a new era of greater prosperity than ever before. The more pessimistic, on the contrary, foresee the speedy exhaustion of the nitrate supplies and a crisis for Chile unless adequate preparation is made for the inevitable readjustment.

Most estimates of the available supplies of nitrate range between about 70,000,000 and 100,000,000 tons, which at the present rate of production would insure the life of the industry for thirty-five to forty years. Some estimates, however, place the amount as high as 200,000,000 tons. The totals given are about equally divided between Tarapacá and Tacna on the one hand, and Antofagasta and Atacama on the other. Private lands, however, are estimated as covering more than half the total, though it must be remembered that the state lands are less well