Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 69.djvu/527

Rh decline of the general birth rate only began after that date. This eliminates six limited and 17 unlimited marriages, leaving 236 limited and 57 unlimited. Again, a usual commencement of limitation appears to be after the birth of at least two children. Marriages contracted in 1903, 1904 and 1905 should, therefore be deducted. This leaves 212 limited and 41 unlimited for the period 1875 to 1902, both years included, and including also four marriages the dates of which were not reported, but which almost certainly fall within the period named. But it must be further noted that no less than 13 of the 41 unlimited marriages were childless, and therefore no occasion for limitation arose, unless the parents had desired a childless marriage. This reduces the number of fertile and unlimited marriages during the period 1875 to 1902 to 28 out of 252, or, if the infertile unlimited marriages are deducted, 239.

If we take the decade 1890-99, which may be regarded as the typical period, we find that out of 120 marriages 107 are limited and 13 unlimited, whilst of these 13 five and possibly six were childless at the date of the return. In this decade, therefore, only seven or possibly eight unlimited fertile marriages are reported out of a total of 120.

In order to ascertain the effect of limitation on the size of families let us next take the number of children born and living up to five years of age, of all limited marriages from the earliest recorded (1867) to and including 1903.

That is, a total of 227 marriages and 495 children. But owing to second marriages, which are not in all cases fully detailed, nine children must be added, together with an uncertain number (say six) for two other fruitful marriages |mentioned but not reported. Altogether the parents of these (say) 510 children number 452. This, however, ignores expected |children.

Taking all limited marriages we may next ascertain what is the probable total intended fertility. We can state the number of each limited family in this form:

Number living added to the number intended where stated; and, secondly, number living plus an unspecified addition. Cases where the return says 'two or three' more children expected are classified as 2, and 'three or four' as 3. We then get the following results: