Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 69.djvu/474

470 relations of earth and sun; in the distribution of land and water, in the position of the earth's axis; in the altitude of the land; in the presence of volcanic dust—changes now in cosmic, now in terrestrial conditions—have been suggested, combated, put forward again. None of these hypotheses has prevailed in preference to others. No actual proof of the correctness of this or that theory has been brought forward. No general agreement has been reached. Under these conditions, and in view of the fact that practical climatology is concerned with climatic changes, not of the geological past but of the historical present, this portion of our subject may be dismissed with this brief mention.

Conclusion.—There is a wide-spread popular belief in permanent, progressive changes of climate during a generation or two. This belief is not supported by the facts of meteorological record. Abundant evidence has been adduced in favor of secular changes-of climate in historical times. Much of this is unreliable, contradictory, and has been interpreted without sufficient regard to possible controls other than climatic change. Without denying the possibility, or even the probability, of the establishment of the fact of secular changes, there is as yet no sufficient warrant for believing in considerable permanent changes over large areas. Dufour, after a thorough study of all available evidence, has concluded that a change of climate has not been proved. There are periodic oscillations of slight amount. An elevenyear period has been made out, with more or less certainty, for some of the meteorological elements, but it has been of no practical importance as yet. A thirty-five year.period is less uncertain, but is nevertheless of considerable irregularity, and can not as yet be practically applied in forecasting. Longer periods are suggested, but not made out. As to causes, variations in solar activity are naturally receiving attention, and the results thus far are promising. But climate is a great complex, and complete and satisfactory explanations of all the facts will be difficult, perhaps impossible, to reach. At present, indeed, the facts which call for explanation are still in most cases but poorly determined, and the processes at work are insufficiently understood. Climate is not absolutely a constant. The pendulum swings to the right, and to the left. And its swing is as far to the right as to the left. Each generation lives through a part of one, or two, or even three, oscillations. A snap-shot view of these oscillations makes them seem permanent. As Supan has well said, it was formerly believed that climate changes locally, but progressively and permanently. It is now believed that oscillations of climate are limited in time, but occur over wide areas. Finally, it is clear that man, whether by reforestation or deforestation, by flooding a desert or by draining a swamp, can produce no important or extended modifications of natural climate, which is governed by factors beyond human control.