Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 67.djvu/518

512 The main reason why Vulcan, or some uncertain planet, became so essential to the theory, was the fact that the planets in sight, though seemingly so well trained, far too frequently disagreed with the development and movement of cyclonic and anti-cyclonic areas over the field of systematic meteorological observations, and as these are the disturbances in the atmosphere which bring the variation in weather during the several seasons, something heroic was needed.

To his own satisfaction Mr. Tice established that Vulcan was a planet of gigantic size. He also assigns him a period of revolution around the sun of forty-six days, and sets the dates of his equinoxes—all essential to his planetary theory. Thus with a terrible Vulcan equinox every twenty-three days of from seven to eleven days' duration, and the aid of the equinoxes of a half dozen other planets, it is made possible to account for about everything under the sun. There is considerable uncertainty and confusion as to the energy of Vulcan's influence at his equinoxes; but as Professor Woodward concludes, "I infer it is immense when immense energy is exhibited and not noticeable when none is noticed—in fact, it depends upon the weather."

A good deal more might be said from a meteorological standpoint to controvert this theory, but I think I have given sufficient to show the absolute untrustworthiness of such a system in predetermining weather. Astronomers have no faith in the astronomical work, assumptions and deductions, and meteorologists certainly as little in the meteorological part. Neither part stood the test of critical investigation. It is believed that Mr. Tice was conscientious and honest in his investigation and theories, but that he was over-enthusiastic and ambitious, and could only see things as he wished to see them. Not so much can be said of some of his present-day disciples.

Some of our long-range weather forecasters base their predictions entirely upon tabulated weather statistics, with averages and departures, from which they believe they have discovered cycles and recurring weather changes and conditions. But their conclusions will not stand critical investigation, and their forecasts are of so general a nature as to be absolutely without value.

Nearly all the modern 'long-range' weather forecasters rely to a large extent upon the weather reports of established weather bureaus, and a mighty howl goes up whenever these reports are withheld from them.

I have reviewed most of the popular weather prognostication systems, but as yet have said nothing of the methods used by the U. S. Weather Bureau. To tell these would take many chapters, and would be a history of modern meteorology as revealed and built up during the past century. The Weather Bureau has taken, and ever stands ready to take, the best that scientific minds and training and scientific