Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 67.djvu/515

Rh It was noticed that the period of 11.86 years of the planet Jupiter to make the complete revolution in his orbit was so near an agreement with the sun spot period of 11.11 years that the coincidence suggested the possibility that Jupiter and the other planets might be the cause, or at least an influence, in the sun spots. However, nothing was satisfactorily demonstrated. "The planetary system represents so many periodic relations as to render it almost certain that any periodic changes in the sun's condition may be associated statistically with some period of planetary motion."

Now among those casting about for a great cycle was Mr. Tice. He had worked out to his own satisfaction that some meteorological phenomena were periodic, and concluded all were, and so set out to establish a great meteorological cycle, which would be the key for explaining all atmospheric phenomena. By an arrangement of meteorological tables, juggling with meteorological statistics, and smoothing out irregularities through resorting to averages, thus obliterating all individual phenomena, he arrived at an average period of 11.83 years. This he at once adopted as the wonder-working meteorological cycle. Naturally, of course, the near agreement of this with Jupiter's period of 11.86 years, and the sun spot period of 11.11 years, caught his attention. He jumps to the conclusion that Jupiter is the main cause of the sun spot period, the earth and the other planets helping. In this conclusion he entirely ignores the difference of .75 years, and that this difference is sufficient to change agreement into total disagreement in five or sis periods. To fit its great cycle into this foundation he must have some starting point, and so he must know when, or in what part of his great orbit, Jupiter exercises the greatest influence in producing sun spots.

It has generally been believed that the weather about the equinoctial period, when the sun is in the plane of the equator, is very unsettled, and that there always occur the so-called equinoctial storms. That storms are more frequent, more violent, or occur with any more regularity at these seasons than any other is certainly not shown in established weather records. Still, there seemed enough truth in it for Mr. Tice, and so he assumes as undeniable (1) that the earth and atmosphere at the equinoxes always undergo an intense electric disturbance, and (2) that this disturbance extends to and affects the sun, and through the sun the other planets. He assumes these notwithstanding no maximum of sun spots is in evidence during the equinoctial months. Reasoning from this unproved hypothesis, he comes to the conclusion through tables of statistics giving (1) the dates of maximum sun spot frequency; (2) dates of Jupiter's aphelion; and (3) and (4) his own dates of the major and minor equinoxes of Jupiter, that Jupiter's equinoxes are the immense influence. (These tables never proved