Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 66.djvu/545

Rh, since, as has been said, a considerable number of the older men may have completed their important work at an early age, still it would seem to throw some serious doubts upon the truth of his generalization. At least the figures show that in a group of arbitrarily limited extent, i. e., the size of 'Who's Who,' the young man in competition for a place is but a one to five 'shot.' But it is possible, through recourse to mathematics, to indicate approximately the age at which the service was rendered which secured admission to the book. To illustrate—of the entire number of 6,983 comprising our group, 86 were between the ages of twenty and twenty-nine years, the entire number having become famous during that decade of life. The probable mortality of that number of persons for the decade, supposing them to be good 'risks,' would be six. We may then suppose that 80 would enter the next decade. But our figures show that 922 of our entire group were between the ages of 30-39, inclusive, leaving the number 842 as representing the number of new names admitted during the decade. Of the total number for this age period (922), the mortality tables lead us to suppose that 78 will die before its completion, giving us 844 as the number passing on to the next group—that for the age decade of 40-49 years. Again we get the probable number added during the decade by subtracting the number thus admitted from the previous group, from 1,620, the total number of persons of the age covered by the decade and find the total number added for services rendered during the decade to be 776. In the same way, by using the continually increasing mortality rate and applying it to the number left over from previous decade-groups, we find the number added between the years 50-59 to be 376; from 60-69 years, 51. Beyond this point the computation gives us minus quantities for the number of persons admitted during each of the next three decades, indicating seemingly either or both of two conditions; first, that the mortality among these men of eminence is greater than that of the insurable risks upon which the mortality tables are based; second, that in the compilation of 'Who's Who,' the old men did not receive the recognition given to their younger confreres, thus reducing the size of these more advanced age-groups. Either one of these conditions would tend to bring about the statistical result alluded to, and on consideration we have reason to believe that both of them are active.

If the above reasoning is not fallacious, and if there is no great lag in the public recognition of achievement, we have a further refutation of Dr. Osier's contention that the 'work of the world is done between the ages of twenty-five and forty,' for we find the ratio of recognition for the several decades to be as follows: