Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 66.djvu/372

368 standing in college is more likely than others to find his name in 'Who's Who in America.' Phi Beta Kappa men (on the average the upper seventh of the class) are twice as likely to be there as others, and the first man in his class is five times as likely.

It is evident that subjects differ greatly in examinability. The results of an examination in mathematics, for example, can be graded with considerable accuracy; they give fairly definite information as to the man's mathematical aptitudes, and mathematical ability is largely innate, so that here the boy is father to the man. The mathematical tripos at Cambridge is a real test. Of the fifty senior wranglers in the first half of the last century a very large number have attained eminence. For example, two of them, Sir George Gabriel Stokes and Dr. N. M. Ferrers, who died within a month preceding the writing of this paragraph, maintained both in mathematical performance and general efficiency the position of, say, first in a hundred given them as the result of a student examination. Two facts should, however, be borne in mind. The senior wrangler is given great opportunity by being made a fellow, and the examination is on three years of solid work. The results of examinations in scrappy courses lasting half a year are not nearly so valid.

Subjects such as literature and psychology do not lend themselves to written examinations so well as mathematics. I have had the same papers in psychology graded by different examiners and have found great variations in the results. There is some validity in the order of excellence, but scarcely any in the absolute grades, the variation of the grades for the same paper by different examiners being as large as the variation of different papers by the same examiners. I have not, however, confirmed this result by sufficient data. One of our courses in psychology is given by different instructors, each of whom sets and grades papers for the same student. The grades assigned are A, B, C, D and F—excellent, good, fair, poor and failure. Four instructors gave twenty-one men a total of 15 A's, 38 B's, 27 C's, 4 D's and 1 F. When, however, we average the grades of the four instructors, we get 3B + 17C + and ID +. All the grades are alike within the unit used, except four, and the probable errors of three of the four show that they are as likely as not to fall within this grade, while the probable error of the remaining grade gives it but moderate validity.

It seems scarcely possible to determine what students are fitted for a college course by means of a written examination; and I fear