Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 61.djvu/324

318 number 80,000,000, say in 1903-4. For convenience in this preliminary study I therefore use 80,000,000 as the factor of population. I have computed the per capita expenditures on many lines from the data of 1900 and 1901, then by multiplying these normal figures of the two normal years before the effect of the short crop of 1901. In this way I compute the per capita and the gross value of each subject treated as it will be on a population numbering 80,000,000. This is only a preliminary study, subject to correction and completion after the final data of the census of 1900 become available; also subject to verification by other methods than the official census, such as I have made use of in this partial analysis.

Within the limited time and space allowed I can not cite authorities. Suffice it that I have, as far as possible, verified figures by reference to the special experts of the census and to various students of specific arts and subjects; notably in iron and steel, liquors, tobacco, cottons, woolens, dairy products, etc.; to all of whom I shall give credit when this preliminary study has been carried to completion.

Item No. 1, Liquors, Divided into Spirits, Wines and Fermented Liquors.—The average consumption of liquors has been computed in the Bureau of Statistics of the Treasury Department for many years with outside aid from a special trade expert. It has also been computed year by year by the editor of the American Grocer. The two estimates vary. The estimate of the American Grocer of the per capita expenditure comes to $14.20. The official estimate for the same year comes to $17.90. The latter may be more reasonably accepted than the former conservative estimate. This annual expenditure appears to be very large, but it proves in fact that the people of the United States are temperate as compared with European nations. It is evident that, since quantities are measured by taxation and values can be readily measured at the points of distribution, this computation is subject to a very small margin of error. The editor of the American Grocer computes spirits at forty-eight drinks to a gallon, which is the measure of standard liquor per drink in the best clubs. At his estimate of the total quantity, 1-33 gallons per head and amount expended, the average charge per glass of liquor is less than ten cents. Now in view of the custom of watering liquor, making at least sixty drinks to a gallon, and the probably average higher charge than ten cents a drink, his expenditure for spirits is probably too low.