Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 58.djvu/206

198 goods are transshipped from Hongkong to Japan, the Philippine Islands, Siam and other parts of the Orient, yet at least three-quarters of all goods (of American probably a higher proportion) received there find their final market in China; so to determine approximately the exports from the United States, or from any other country to China, the only way is to add to the direct exports three-quarters of the shipments to Hongkong. And to determine the relative standing of the trade of several nations, we should deduct the Hongkong trade from China's total as shown by the returns of the Imperial Maritime Customs, and then compare the reported direct imports or exports. This last calculation will not yield the actual amount of trade by about one-half, but it will show with fair closeness the percentage of trade secured and the rate of increase. I have in this manner obtained the figures for the year 1893, the period just previous to the Japanese War; those of 1883 and 1873, respectively the tenth and the twentieth year preceding 1893; and those for 1898, the fifth year following, and also for 1899, the Last complete year of normal trade conditions existing before the Boxer revolution. This table shows the import trade of China exclusive of Hongkong and the relative standing of the leading commercial powers, the actual trade of which is not as stated, for the table does not include shipments through Hongkong.

In the above table all the Continental powers of Europe are grouped as one. From this it will be seen that the export trade of the United States, an insignificant amount in 1873, has now outstripped the combined exports from the whole Continent of Europe, and will be soon contesting for second place with India and Japan. Had it not been for sudden increased shipments in 1899 of certain special articles like coal on the part of these countries, which articles China can and-should produce, the United States would have passed the Indian trade and be close on to that of Japan. In point of exports from China the United States trade in 1899 had reached a point surpassing that of any other country except Great Britain.

But along what lines have these increases been made? Do they represent only a greater outturning of raw material—the direct products of the soil—or of manufactured articles, carrying with them the results of American ingenuity and American labor, a form of export trade always the most desirable?