Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 38.djvu/63

Rh such a result is produced by a variety of causes, some of which may be known and some unknown? But as to what particular cause the effect is mainly due, and to what degree others influenced the result, we have no better means of knowing than the astronomer has of understanding the cause of the variation in the moon's orbit, when he is ignorant of the Newtonian laws. The sick man, having dosed himself with a variety of drugs and suddenly finding himself restored to health, has no reason for claiming that this or that particular compound had the salutary effect, if his knowledge is limited to this one or similar experiments; and so long as we fail to discover instances in which the disturbing causes are absent, or in which they can be eliminated, so long the method of induction remains useless. The problem of trade is an example at hand. Mr. Blaine informs us that trade is affected by a multitude of causes, such as locality, the age and population of a country, wars—both domestic and foreign—by emigration, pestilence, and famine. He states that "the unknown quantities are so many that a problem in trade or agriculture can never have an absolute answer in advance." "If," he says, "the inductive method of reasoning may be trusted, we certainly have a logical basis of conclusion in the facts here detailed. And by what other mode of reasoning can we safely proceed in this field of controversy?" What, indeed! And does Mr. Blaine really think it safe procedure to undertake the solution of a problem by a method the success of which is absolutely dependent upon a knowledge of all the quantities that are involved, when, as he states, the unknown quantities are so many? The truth is—and it evidently dawned upon him when he asked that question the method of inductive reasoning can not be applied successfully in this discussion, The