Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 37.djvu/613

Rh the product of agriculture found its home market only by sale for export to foreign countries; since then the proportion of exports has diminished; exports now range from ten to fifteen per cent in value of the total product of agriculture, varying with the relative supply and demand. It therefore follows that there is a vastly greater proportion of farmers and farm laborers whose home market depends upon the export trade than there are of those who might possibly be harmed even if, through imports of foreign articles of like kind, the demand for their own product were reduced.

When we take up the fourth class, manufacturing and mechanic arts and mining, one's judgment may vary as to the proportion whose home market depends upon export and the proportion whose product could be in part imported from a foreign country. In a rough and ready way it may be said that about one half the total number under this head of 3,800,000 were mechanics engaged in building trades or in other arts which can not be conducted on the factory principle, and which can not be interfered with or affected to their detriment by any import from any foreign country, but may be greatly benefited by the removal of taxes from the materials on which they work.

It is not worth while at this time to enter into the details of the classification of the other half of this number. Let it be admitted that there are about 1,900,000 to 2,000,000 people more or less, each of whom supports two others who are occupied distinctly in the manufacturing and mechanic arts, a part of whose work may be promoted by a tariff, and a part of whose work might perhaps be adversely affected by injudicious or revolutionary changes in the tariff policy of the country. The main point of this analysis is to call attention to the fact that at least eighty per cent, and probably more, of all who are occupied for gain in this country, have no direct interest in the tariff question except as consumers; while the remainder, about evenly divided between producers and consumers, may be affected more or less by changes in the tariff system to their benefit, or to their injury by injudicious or revolutionary changes.

There are probably twelve to fifteen hundred thousand persons occupied mainly in agriculture, but partly in the mining, mechanic, and manufacturing arts, whose home market depends absolutely on sales for export, and about ten to twelve hundred thousand occupied mainly in manufacturing and mining but in lesser proportion in agriculture, whose product would be in part imported if all duties on their products were abated. The reduction or abatement of duties on imports would necessarily promote exports, but how much imports would be increased or diminished can not be determined until the effect of the removal of duties on