Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 36.djvu/366

352 war. With trade restored to its normal channels, and a steadyreduction in the national debt, have come a constant appreciation in national securities. Ever-improving means of intercourse "by steam and telegraph have brought about a better knowledge in Europe of other leading American investments, and a competition for them which makes the London demand in substantial sympathy with that of New York. Meanwhile, too, European rates of interest have fallen; in 1887 Germany was able to convert her 3's into 3's; last year Great Britain refunded a large portion of her debt, which had borne 3 per cent, at 2, with a liability for but 2 after a certain term. Among the consequences which have followed the diminution of income from secure European investments has been the invasion of the American industrial field by European capital. This invasion, partly prompted by the fear of continental war, in seeking to add profit to interest, must both tend to increase commercial competition in America and contribute to further lower the rate of interest. A fact recently presented by Mr. M. A. Neymarck, the French economist, is worth mentioning in this connection: when the existing redeemable debts of France, of Paris, and of the French railway companies are paid, the redemption prices will exceed the issue prices by $1,300,000,000.

While the progress of science, applied to developing the resources of this country, has prodigiously increased its capital, the ratio of it offered for safe investment has increased at the same time. Savings-banks, trust companies, building associations, insurance companies diverse in type, afford, as it were, a thorough system of conduits to bring every tiny rill of saved earnings to some great reservoir of accumulation. Despite America's increase of population, there are now, probably, fewer hoards of money in its old stockings than ever. When tenders for city, county, State, or railroad bonds are opened, it is usual to find that the majority of competitors are trust companies, savings-banks, and other concerns representing small investors, whose demand first and chiefly is that their security shall be unquestionable. To this numerous class a vitally important inquiry is, Are we to expect a rise or a fall in the rate of interest? In considering this question it will be enough, in passing, to say that abnormal influences affecting the rate of interest are the remote contingencies of foreign war or civil commotion; the normal influences are chiefly four:

First, the comparative efficiency or reproductive power of capital; next, its security, depending on the character and ability of those who handle it; third, its supply and demand; lastly, the soundness of the currency, assuring the repayment of loans in un-depreciated money. With respect to the first factor, a glance is enough to show it to be two-sided. In the new South and new