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294 ; while in Great Britain the condition of trade and industry has uninterruptedly been regarded, since 1882–'83, with great anxiety. There is a very general agreement of opinion in England and on the Continent of Europe that the years 1879, 1885, and 1886 were the worst that have been experienced in the period commencing with 1873. In England, France, and Germany, the increase or decrease in exports is popularly regarded as an indication of the condition of business, and assuming 100 to represent the exports for 1883, the decline in the value of the exports of these several countries since that year may be represented as follows: England, 1883, 100; 1884, 92·2; 1885, 88·5, a falling off in two years of 11·2 per cent. The record of France is better—1883, 100; 1884, 93·1; 1885, 92·3, a falling off of 7·7 per cent; while Germany falls behind both countries: 1882, 100; 1883, 98; 1884, 89; 1885, 87·5, a falling off of 12·5 per cent.

One point of interest which is here specially worthy of note from its bearing on the discussion of causes, is that the recurrence of the period of depression in 1882, after the favorable reaction which occurred to a greater or less extent in 1879, was quiet and gradual, as if matters were naturally again assuming a normal condition, and was not preceded or accompanied by any marked financial or commercial disturbances. On the contrary, the money markets of the world remained "easy," and were characterized, as they have ever since been, by a plethora of capital seeking investment and a low rate of interest; so that the economic disturbance since 1882 has been mainly in the nature of a depression of industry, with a renewed and remarkable decline of prices; with absolutely no decline, but rather an increase in the volume of trade, and certainly no falling off in production, as compared with the figures of 1880 and 1881, which years in the United States, and to some extent in other countries, were regarded as prosperous.

The following presentation, chronologically arranged, of brief extracts from various publications since 1872–'73, will further assist to a recollection and comprehension of the course of events since that period, and also exhibit the opinions which have been expressed at different times, respecting the "influence," "causes," and duration of the so-called "depression of trade and industry," by those who, by position or investigation, have assumed to speak with more or less of authority on the subject. And, with this intent, attention is first asked to the following retrospect of the curious experience of the iron and steel industry of the United States, as exhibited by quotations from the reports of the American Iron and Steel Association from 1873 to 1887:

1873. The year 1872 opened with an increased demand for iron in nearly all civilized countries. Prices advanced rapidly in all markets. The supply was unequal to the demand, although production was everywhere stimulated. In the United States forty new blast-furnaces were erected, and the erection of others