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726 of it. And, indeed, the political economists, reckoning in all who write on economic topics, are so far apart that the authority of their science has greatly declined in the past twenty years, owing to the general doubt as to what the science really stands for. In the early part of this century our politicians were probably our best economists. Now the difference between the leading politicians who make our laws and the men who write is appalling or grotesque, as we may choose to look at it. Looking over the whole ground, a physicist would say that the inventions of the present century were forces falling on units already unlike, and they necessarily led to increased divergence in wealth and intelligence. Dissimilarity once initiated bred dissimilarity. Those successful under the new régime were able to combine their capital and undertake large and profitable enterprises. Here, again, appeared differences. Probably a majority of those who so invested have either lost money or have at least failed to make much, as we may be sure from the fact that the average return on capital actually invested in railroads in this country is less than four per cent; and, of course, the return to the original undertakers was even less. Others, however, like Mr. Vanderbilt, reaped a rich reward; and thus came increased divergence.

Enough has been said, I think, to make it clear—and indeed it is obvious at first thought—that the golden opportunities seized by our business chiefs have been offered principally because the past age has been one of enormously rapid transition. Very few men were adapted to the new circumstances, and those few necessarily reaped a large profit. Such violent and disorderly transitions are very uncomfortable; and it is to this fact, if the foregoing views are correct, that we must ascribe the manifestations of irritation even among those obviously benefited—manifestations which are to be found in our literature, our universal hurry, and our entire conduct of life.

II. The second question—Will the circumstances favoring the sudden aggregation of wealth continue—? is thus in large measure answered by the first. It now takes the form, How long will the period of active transition continue? This question naturally divides itself into two others, which may be separately discussed:

1. What is the prospect of new inventions which will have a power of disturbance similar to that already shown by steam and electricity? This is, of course, very hard to say, but we are not altogether without light. No great alteration in methods of business is possible except through improvement in the means of transportation, and through the removal of artificial obstructions to transportation, such as tariffs and other interferences of the government with the