Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 29.djvu/555

Rh Is it based on the general law of causation? Does it presuppose the acceptance of any theory?

Predictions and generalizations based on Bacon's system of induction and simple enumeration are the most common and best known; they are based on the observation of Nature without experiment. They take the facts as they are, and merely enumerate. This method governed the whole world before the development of natural science. Even to-day it is made the basis of prediction by all who are not familiar with the method of experimental investigation. In this category must be classed the sayings of country people purporting to foretell the weather. If a farmer who places faith in such sayings be asked upon what grounds his belief is founded, he will probably answer, "For so and so many years I have watched the weather, and have always known these rules to come true." At the best, his observations will have been none too accurate; and as to any actual relation between prediction and fulfillment, of course that is out of the question.

Even nowadays many families cling to the superstition that thirteen people should not be seated together at table, because it is a sign that one of the number will die in the coming year. Should any question be asked as to the reasons on which such a fear might be founded, a great many incidents will undoubtedly be related, instances where thirteen dined together, and death claimed a victim from among the number before the year had passed. The many occasions where thirteen have dined together and no one of the number has died within the time prescribed (and how often does this not occur in inns and other public places, and no one gives the matter a thought!), these instances are of course completely ignored. A patient, who may have consulted several physicians without experiencing relief, finally turns to one of the many patent-medicines advertised in the papers. After a time he feels better; perhaps the improvement is but temporary, as is so often the case in troubles of long standing, but then, oftentimes urged thereto by the proprietors of the wonderful medicine, he writes a letter of thanks, and anon the papers will herald the announcement, "Sure cure to all unfortunates by the famous cure-all, ," and then comes some pompous name. Other patients think a great deal of the so-called "sympathetic" cures. When the moon is on the wane they go to a graveyard, taking care to speak to no one on the way, or they throw barley-grains over their head backward into the water, meantime muttering some incantation. If the believers in these cures be questioned as to how they can place faith in such wondrous arts, they will refer to certain instances where such means have been successfully employed; but of course they can trace absolutely no connection whatever between the remedy and its supposed effects.

Prophecies of a similar kind, that do not, however, exactly refer to natural phenomena, can only be mentioned here. Thus, a northern light or a comet is said to be the forerunner of war. The relative position