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452 be a success, and if I had ten years now to sell the edition, I might print one thousand; but, under this arrangement, a grave book not selling one thousand in three years, or anything like it, it will never do for me to print one thousand. Should it be much talked about by the end of three years, there might be a rival edition, and my stock would be left on my hands. Hence, now that there is this very short time in which I can sell the book, I must print a smaller number—say five hundred. But if I print five hundred, and expect to get back outlay and a profit on that small number, I must charge more than I should do if I printed one thousand and had time to sell them. Therefore the price must be raised." In the case of a book which did turn out a success, it might eventually happen that there would be a cheap edition issued, and that that raised price would not be permanent; but this argument of the publisher with himself would lead him to raise the price, not only of that book, but of the other grave books which he published, all of which would stand in the same position of possibly being successes, but not probably; and of these, the great mass, the nine out of ten that did not succeed, the price would remain higher—would never be lowered. There would not only be that reason for raising the price: there would be a further one. If a man in the wholesale book-trade, who puts down his name for a certain number of copies, knows that a cheaper edition will possibly come out by and by, the result will be that he will take a smaller number of copies than he would otherwise do. At the beginning he may take his twenty-five or thirteen, as the case may be; but as the end of the three years is approaching he will say: "No, I will not take a large number; I must take two or three." Then, still further, the reader himself will be under the same bias. He will say: "Well, this book is one I ought to have: I hear it highly spoken of, but it is probable that there will be by and by a cheap edition; I will wait till the end of the three years." That is to say, both wholesale dealers and readers would earlier stop their purchases, thinking there might be a cheap edition; and that would further tend to diminish the number printed and to raise the price.

Q. (Sir H. Holland). Might it not be that the publisher, instead of entering into those calculations that you have pointed out, would consider, knowing that other editions may appear: "What is the cheapest form in which I can print this book? What can I afford to give the author consistently with bringing out the cheapest possible book, so that I may be secure against any other publisher bringing out a cheaper edition?"

A. It would be a very reasonable argument, if he knew which, out of these various books of the graver kind, was going to succeed; but since nine out of ten do not succeed—do not succeed, at least, to the extent of getting to a second edition—do not succeed, therefore, so far as to make it at all likely that there would be a rival edition, and that a cheap edition would pay, he will never argue so; inasmuch as he