Page:Pentagon-Papers-Part V. B. 2. b.djvu/184

 TOP SECRET but Is incapable of Interdicting all small craft smuggling arms.

The Viet Minh forces have the present ability to continue to occupy the major area of Tonkin (North Vietnam), and to threaten the two large cities of Hanoi and Haiphong. Scattered elements throughout central and southern Indochina, continue to have a harassing ability, preventing peaceful conditions and the resumption of orderly life and trade. With continued assistance at the present level from Communist China, the Viet Minh forces will remain a serious threat to the ability of the States and the French Union Forces to defend and hold the major portion of Indochina. If massive Chinese Communist armies actually invade Indochina, such an attack could not be successfully resisted by the presently available forces and most of Indochina could be overrun within a matter of months.

The ability of the State and the French Union Forces to maintain their present positions in Indochina, therefore depends only upon the absence of an actual Chinese Communist invasion in force. Their ability to improve their present position, that is, defense against the Viet Minh as presently augmented by Chinese Communist aid, will depend upon continuing materiel and financial aid from France and the United States, and the skill with which such resources are utilized.

The policy adopted In NSC 64 and the measures taken to implement it have made a valuable contribution toward the stability of Indochina and of Southeast Asia. American military aid furnished the States' forces and the Army of the French Union may have been the decisive factor in the preservation of the area against Communist aggression.

Future policy with regard to Indochina will be the subject of new studies now under preparation for the NSC.

Rh TOP SECRET