Page:Pentagon-Papers-Part IV. A. 5.djvu/61

Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011  Concerning numbers of Viet Minh left behind, figures are even more vague. U.S. intelligence as of 1956 accepted 8,000 as its best estimate, of which 5,000 were armed and organized in skeletal military units; there were reports of strengths up to 10,000. A more recent U.S. intelligence appraisal states that: ""While the number of hard-core Communists remaining in South Vietnam after 1954 cannot be confirmed, French and South Vietnamese estimates, based on observations of friendly military commanders in the field, placed the figure at 5,000 armed Viet Minh. However, this is clearly a conservative estimate since it does not include political agents or 'soft core' members or supporters....""

In summary, best current estimates indicate:

5,000 Armed Viet Minh

3,000 Political Cadre

Unknown dependents of Viet Minh
 * 8.

Interviews with captured or defected regroupees, and captured Viet Cong documents, establish that the DRV leadership told the Viet Minh in 1954 that the general elections and unification mentioned in Article 14 of the Geneva Agreement would occur in July 1956, as asserted in the Final Declaration of the Conference. Accordingly, unlike the refugees fleeing south, who evidently accepted permanent separation from their birthplace, most of the Viet Minh who were regrouped to the North expected to be separated from their homes and families only two years. There were a variety of motives or emotions involved, but whatever response the cadre evoked in their Rh