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Declassified per Executive Order 13526, Section 3.3 NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011  Because of geographic, logistical, and other considerations, Communist activities are concentrated, as in the past, in the highly populated and productive Cochinchina region. The terrain, most of which is swamp, as in the Mekong River delta, or virtually jungle, as along the Cambodian frontier, has favored hit-and-run tactics and infiltration from (and regroupment in) Cambodia. Since the latter part of 1960, however, the Communists have steeped up substantially their armed operations in the once relatively quiescent central and northern provinces. While this may be partly a tactical manuevermaneuver [sic] to relieve increasing government pressure on Communist forces in the southern provinces, the Communist leadership may be in the process of opening a second major "front" in an area where the prospects of infiltrating cadres from neighboring southern Laos have become more favorable than ever before. In any event, the size of Communist forces in the central and northern provinces has increased greatly, and Communist capabilities there are likely to improve still further. Other infiltration routes are across the Demilitarized Zone along the 17th parallel and by junk landings along South Vietnam's long coastline.

Judging from their actions and from alleged secret directives from Hanoi, the Communists appear to be aiming at isolating as much of the countryside as possible from urban centers (as they were able to do to a considerable extent during the Indochina hostilities), hoping to weaken the government and utlimatelyultimately [sic] precipitate its overthrow. The plan apparently has been to build up sufficient armed strength in relatively inaccessible area (including areas under Communist influence sine 1954) where cadres could rest, train, and regroup and from which operations could be launched. The Communists presumably hope that the number and size of these areas could be progressively increased and that they could eventually become completely Communist-controlled and strong enough to resist attack by government forces. By Communist definition, they would then constitute "liberated" areas. Since about the middle part of this year, however, Communist guerrilla and terrorist attacks have occurred closer to urban areas than ever before, and two provincial capitals have been attacked and held temporarily.

The Communists have also stepped up their propaganda and other non-violent subversive activities, particularly during the past six months. In urban areas, they have sought to exploit dissatisfaction with Diem's leadership among non-Communist opposition and labor and youth groups and have urged cooperation in a popular front against Diem. They have announced the creation of a "National Liberation Front", reportedly composed of various youth, womans', labor and other groups and equipped with its own news agency and mobile radio transmitter, ostensibly to give the Communist conspiracy the facade of political legitimacy and broad political support. Efforts to penetrate the government services and the military and security

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