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PRIORITY

SENT DEPARTMENT 4662, REPEATED, INFORMATION PRIORITY PARIS 1298

PARIS FOR AMBASSADOR

FOR THE SECRETARY FROM COLLINS

LIMIT DISTRIBUTION

1. I MET WITH DO, QUAT, MINH AND TRAN VAN VAN 1500 APRIL 19 TO REVIEW WITH THEM THEIR REACTIONS TO MODIFIED THOAI PROPOSAL. I WENT OVER EACH STEP CAREFULLY, SO THAT THERE WOULD BE NO MISUNDERSTANDING AS TO MY MEANING.

2. MINH'S REACTION WAS THAT SITUATION WAS NOT MUCH WORSE THAN IN PERIOD BEFORE HIS RESIGNATION AND CRISIS WOULD BE MUCH MORE EASILY RESOLVED WITHOUT DIEM THAN WITH HIM. MINH SAID HE TENDED TO FAVOR EARLY GENERAL ELECTIONS TO SET UP A CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY IN 3 OR 4 MONTHS. MEANWHILE, A COALITION GOVERNMENT WOULD BE NECESSARY, BUT IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO FORM WITH DIEM AS PRIME MINISTER.

3. QUAT SAID HE HAD NO SPECIFIC COMMENTARY TO MAKE ON THE PROPOSAL BUT WISHED TO CONTRIBUTE AN ANALYSIS OF CRISIS. THE TWO MAIN ELEMENTS, HE SAID, ARE DIEM'S GOVERNMENT AND SECT'S POSITION. A THIRD AND LESS CRUCIAL FACTOR IS POLITICAL OPINION OF OPPOSITION OTHER THAN SECTS, DIEM'S OBVIOUS ERRORS AND FAULTY METHODS HAVE CREATED MOAT BETWEEN HIM AND ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE SOCIETY WİİCH IS BECOMING BROADER AND DEEPER, AND CONTACTS BETWEEN DIEM AND OTHERS ARE BECOMING MORE REMOTE. WITH REGARD TO SECTS, THESE GROUPS KNOW THE PROBLEM THEY CREATE MUST BE RESOLVED. HE FEELS ONLY WAY TO RESOLVE PROBLEM IS PROGRESSIVELY THROUGH MOBILIZING PUBLIC 451875