Page:Online Statistics Education.pdf/11

 by Mikki Hebl

Learning Objectives
 * 1) Describe the range of applications of statistics
 * 2) Identify situations in which statistics can be misleading
 * 3) Define “Statistics”

Statistics include numerical facts and figures. For instance:
 * The largest earthquake measured 9.2 on the Richter scale.
 * Men are at least 10 times more likely than women to commit murder.
 * One in every 8 South Africans is HIV positive.
 * By the year 2020, there will be 15 people aged 65 and over for every new baby born.

The study of statistics involves math and relies upon calculations of numbers. But it also relies heavily on how the numbers are chosen and how the statistics are interpreted. For example, consider the following three scenarios and the interpretations based upon the presented statistics. You will find that the numbers may be right, but the interpretation may be wrong. Try to identify a major flaw with each interpretation before we describe it.


 * 1) A new advertisement for Ben and Jerry's ice cream introduced in late May of last year resulted in a 30% increase in ice cream sales for the following three months. Thus, the advertisement was effective.


 * A major flaw is that ice cream consumption generally increases in the months of June, July, and August regardless of advertisements. This effect is called a history effect and leads people to interpret outcomes as the result of one variable when another variable (in this case, one having to do with the passage of time) is actually responsible.


 * 2) The more churches in a city, the more crime there is. Thus, churches lead to crime. 11