Page:NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SURVEY 19 HUNGARY COUNTRY PROFILE CIA-RDP01-00707R000200110037-3.pdf/7

 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA-RDP01-00707R000200110037-3

Revolution or Evolution? A Hungarian Dilemma

With almost cyclical regularity hardheaded realists and romantic nationalist firebrands have alternately dominated historical events in Hungary. Through centuries of foreign subjugation in the Hungarians have proved to be reluctant and rebellious subjects, and a general pattern of repression-revolt-reform-repression has characterized their national experience. The decade of the 1960's was a period of orderly reform, and the Communist regime in Budapest rode a tide of political stability into the early 1970's. Whether this situation lasts or declines into more repression and turmoil will depend largely on how well the leadership adjusts to new challenges and whether it can continue to deliver on its promises of a better life through gradual and pragmatic reforms. (U/OU)

Throughout history, the Hungarians have been the victims but also the ultimate beneficiaries of their circumstances. Originating in northeastern Europe and during their prehistory subject to considerably Turkic influence, Magyar tribes settled in the Danube River basin toward the end of the ninth century. As a small non-Indo-European people surrounded by hostile Slavic nations who were in turn at odds with their Germanic neighbors, the Hungarians became pawns in nearly all of the military and diplomatic struggles that have disrupted central Europe. The Turks, Habsburgs, Nazis, and finally the Soviets established themselves, in turn, as Hungary's "protectors" and sponsored Hungarian political leaders who would give them loyal service. (U/OU)

But Hungary's misfortunes were also a source of inner strength. They helped hone a special brand of nationalism and developed over the centuries a determination either to seek compromise with superior power for the sake of national existence, or at times to take up arms—even though facing certain defeat—for the sake of national identity. The Magyar people, despite repeated invasions and attempts at ethnic assimilation, have maintained their national identity and a high degree of cultural and ethnic integrity. In the end, the foreign powers that have successively denied Hungary's elusive dream of true national independence have had to rely on military force to maintain their hegemony. (U/OU)

On the scale of Hungary itself, the Magyar record of military defeats and futile revolts is a bleak one. But on the larger European scale, the Magyar willingness to rise united against a stronger overlord has helped to shape the relations between one

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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2009/06/16: CIA-RDP01-00707R000200110037-3