Page:Mexico and its reconstruction.djvu/233

Rh of the orderly development that had been maintained during the reign of President Diaz.

That commerce would suffer during the widespread disorders brought by the revolution was to be expected. The actual effects of the local conflict are obscured in its later years by the developments of the World War, which, by giving a great stimulus to certain lines of international trade, distorted the trade values and upset the normal conditions in a number of important lines of Mexican production, notably silver, sisal, and petroleum. As a result, the uncertainty as to the amount of the totals of the trade brought by the early years of the war has been succeeded by uncertainty as to what the figures mean, now that some published by the Mexican government again become available.

The most contradictory conclusions are arrived at by different persons. If, for example, the reports of crop production are considered as an indication of commercial conditions, the picture presented even for 1918, the last year for which figures are available, is very gloomy.

These returns seem to show a very serious cutting down of the production of the staples upon which the people of the country depend. The crop decline has affected international trade less than might be expected, since those who use imported goods are not the people at large and the chief cereals do not enter foreign commerce in large amounts.

If the returns of international trade and of customs collections be interpreted as those in control of the government allege they should be, Mexico must be admitted