Page:Mexico (1829) Volumes 1 and 2.djvu/380

 340 MEXICO. I confidently look, take place as soon as I have been taught to expect, (vide Book IV.) the term, within which its effects will be felt, can hardly, I should think, exceed the five years, to which I have limited my present 'enquiry. But, be it sooner, or be it later, the trade of Mexico, with reference to the amount of its present population, will not reach what I should term its natural limits, until the amount of Silver raised again equals the average annual amount of that raised before the Revolution, viz. : Twenty-four millions of dollars : nor do I conceive that any rapid increase in the present demand for European manufactures can be looked for, unless it be preceded by as rapid an improvement in the mines.* It is probable, from the low prices of most European ma- nufactures during the last year, and the difficulty of realising even the most moderate profit, that the imports of 1826 rather exceed the amount of what the country is able, under present circumstances, to consume ; in which case a decrease of activity in the intercourse with Europe, will appear upon the returns of 1827- This circumstance is of little importance ; as, until things find their proper level, such fluctuations must frequently occur. But there is no prospect of seeing the demand fall far short of that which now exists, since, in local, as in mental improvement, each step in advance facilitates the next, and Mexico has already surmounted the greatest difiiculty, the commencement of a new career. Without pretending, therefore, to fix the ultimate value of her Commerce to Europe, or to Great Britain in particular, I tures from Europe ; for, as observed before, the loans, and the advances made by the Mining Companies, have hitherto, to a certain degree, en- couraged the imports of English manufactures, by furnishing remit- tances, which would not otherwise have been found for the English exporter.
 * The want of returns will necessarily limit the imports of manufac-