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196 in an opinion that the French Court desire peace. It is certainly their interest, as the events of war and the duration of alliances are uncertain, though now in their favour. The war on their part could have no reasonable object except an extension of commerce. According to what is proposed they will have obtained and secured it to the east and west without limitation. The independence of the Thirteen Provinces ensures the one, and it is my determination to grant the other, upon the same footing as to our own subjects. Nothing remains in our favour except the territory, a doubtful good and certainly not worth having, if the seeds of a rival power are suffered to be sown anywhere from Bengal to Madras, much less a foreign standard planted either in Bengal or at Masulipatam. They have as much the right to expect it within Great Britain, and it would be much safer, because we could better guard against it. Considering the length we go in other quarters of the world, particularly in Newfoundland, and the balance, if you try it on paper, in their favour, I cannot conceive there will be any real hesitation on their part, and it is our determination that it shall be either war or peace before we meet the Parliament; for I need not tell you that we shall have then to meet so many opinions and passions supported by party and different mercantile interests, that no negotiation can advance with credit to those employed. It may be of importance that the French Ministry be made to understand this clearly, and it may be the means of bringing both them and the Spaniards to an ultimatum, which will leave nothing to us but to say yes or no. This would be very desirable in many points of view, and appears to me the only certain way of preventing infinite discontent."

Shelburne also wrote to Rayneval reminding him of their private conversations, after which he said it was impossible to enter into the discussion of new propositions less advantageous to Great Britain than those then put forward. "Pour moi," he went on to say, "ni le succès à Gibraltar, ni les nouvelles les plus agréables de nos