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 amount of value theory done on the topic of environmental ethics, there's been very little philosophical contribution to the actual science of climate change. In effect, then, one of the principal goals of this dissertation is to jump up and down, wave my arms, and shout "over here!" As I inevitably get some (many) of the details wrong in my discussion, I hope others will be inspired to step in and correct things, point out what I've done incorrectly, and do better than I am capable of doing. If I can inspire enough controversy to get the philosophical community involved in the climate change debate, then I will count this as a success, irrespective of whether or not my own views are accepted or rejected.

Relatedly, part of my intention here is to stake out a large amount of territory all at once to suggest how those with expertise in specific problems might make deeper contributions than I make here. In discussing philosophy of science, complexity theory, model-building, and value theory all in a single work, I hope to sketch the general shape that a fully-fledged "philosophy of climate science" literature might take, and to open the door for more systematic contributions to that literature by those who are best equipped to make them. In order to make this goal achievable in only a few hundred pages of writing, I'm forced to make a number of simplifying assumptions in some places, and to ignore significant problems entirely in other places. Whenever possible, I will offer a footnote flagging the fact that I'm doing this deliberately, and suggesting what a more careful elaboration of the topic might look like. If I were to give each topic here the full attention it deserves, this work would be thousands of pages in length (not to mention beyond my ability). I far prefer to leave the project of elaborating and expanding most of what I'm trying to start here to my betters. To facilitate this, I will close each chapter with a series of questions for further exploration, or a brief discussion of the shape that future research 11