Page:Indian Journal of Economics Volume 2.djvu/61

 ART OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 49 fiuenced predominantly by food prices; (2)and the tendency of the progress of economic development to increase the demand for labor, and of the progress of civilization to create a higher standard of living and thus check the supply of labor and increase its etTiciency at the same time, thus causing a higher money wage rate. Generally speaking, if trade customs are maintained, and education be reasonably directed, the skilled labor will become more ecient and thus very possibly no dearer in effect at a higher wage rate but the effective cost of uuskilled labor is almost certain to continue increasing in the future as it has done in the past with the development of trade and industries. The probable continued rise in the cost of unskilled and semi-skilled labor is a factor of the greatest importance in projecting future public works in India ;'*and there are few economic predict, ions which can be made with a greater measure of certainty than this. Coming now to consider the determination of the policy which should be followed as the result o! whatever forecasts may be made as to the future course of prices and wages, it is necessary to state first of all that pat events of. recent date should have no influence on the decision in regard to future action, except in so far as the experience they afiord may help to determine or influence the forecast. There are many public bodies which have embarrassed by the cost found themselves seriously of, projectrod works rising substanfily even whilst plans were under considera- tion, and there is a natural, but ofttimes fatal, indisposition to accept the new conditions as anything but exceptional or temporary. It is believed to be safest to wait and see whether the rise of prices and wages will not be followed by a fall. adopted not because of any reasoned This course is forecast; but